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Dreamcatcher__ 87M
744 posts
5/9/2020 2:27 pm

Last Read:
10/30/2020 9:40 am

Don't Waste This Crisis (Update)



At least some news keeps getting better. Apparently of the polls I had intended t o post didn't make it into my last blog post [post 186].

So here they are. Joe Biden, sitting in his basement with barely a signal call his own, is kicking Trump's ass. Even Texas is a toss . Okay, everybody knows Texas is fools gold for Democrats... but now Trump has spend t o keep Texas fools golden.

Okay, they're just polls. But if Trump is freaking out, and he is definitely freaking out like he never freaked before, then he must think they're accurate. He takes his own polls, and he's reportedly super pissed at his pollster.

My main point remains... it's data, not airy fairy hand wringing. The bed wetters will tell you that Hillary was ahead in the polls before she was behind... and she was. But she was Hillary. She had too much baggage, too many negatives (thanks to an incessant pounding by the Republican spin machine) and, though she could dance circles around Trump policy, she was never worth a damn as a campaigner.

Still, as I said before, the virus has showed us that models and data can change if circumstances change. But this election is our chance make changes of our own. Too long we've had a government that denies science... in every form... that doesn't believe in data unless it's to Trump's political advantage. Trump's cronies are gonna go out keep their snouts in the trough, so it's gonna be a long hard slog. But saving our Republic is worth it.

Joe Biden is a good, decent guy, and he knows what the hell he's doing. What follows indicates that America believes in him:

Monmouth U poll
Biden..50% +2 from April
Trump..41% -3 from April
April 30-May 4 +/-3.6

Monmouth U
April 30-May 4 +/- 3.6
..................men women
Biden 50% 44% 56%
Trump 41% 46% 36%

Montana, US Senate race
Montana State U poll
April -27 */- 3.6 points
Bullock (D) 46%
Daines..(R) 39%
*(Trump winning by 5

Arizona US Senate
Mark Kelly (D)..........50%
Martha McSally (R).44%

Colorado US Senate
April -19
Hickenlooper (D) 48%
Gardener (R)........31%

North Carolina US Senate May 2-4 Civiqs poll
Cunningham (D) 50%
Tillis (R)...............41%

CBS News/YouGov poll
April 28-May 1 +/- 2.5
Biden..49%
Trump..43%
.
Texas General Election Dallas Morning News
April 18-27 Texas voters
+/- 2.85
Biden..43%
Trump.43%

General Election Registered Voters
Suffolk U/USA Today poll
April 21-25 +/- 3 points
Biden..50%
Trump 40%

Economist/YouGov
April 26-28 +/- 3.2 points
Biden 47%
Trump 41%

Emerson College poll
April 26-28 +/- 2.8 points
Biden 48%
Trump 42%

New Hampshire
Saint Anselm College
April 23-27 +/- 3.4 points
Biden 50%
Trump 42%

WRAL News
North Carolina likely voters
April 23-26 +/- 5.5 points
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Public Policy poll
Texas
voters April 27-28
Biden 47%
Trump 46%

New York voters
Siena College
Registered voters
April 19-23 +/- 3.7 points
Biden 65%
Trump 29%

Fox News poll 4/18-21
PA Biden 50% Trump 42%
MI Biden 49% Trump 41%
FL Biden 46% Trump 42%



Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/22/2020 8:55 pm

    Quoting Aislin:
    The Government just seems like one of the TV reality shows lately such as 90 Day Fiancé' so it's so hard to believe it is at all serious and yet it is.
TV is actually a large part of the reason it all seems so frivolous. TV needs drama. The camera feeds on it. It's not a medium that lends itself to interesting yet serious subjects. It's entertainment, and that's what news tends to become when it is on TV. Social media is equally fatuous, boiling everything down to a derogatory catchphrase. What could be more mind deadening? Yet catchphrases can be uplifting when properly applied. "Some see things as they are, and wonder why? I see things as they could be and wonder, why not?" Actually by George Bernard Shaw, but frequently misattributed to Robert Kennedy, who used it in a speech in Indonesia.

There is great potential for good in this country and many good people to accomplish it. The trick is to find a cause we can all rally around. Some hope it will be a common threat, like global warming. I have had the good fortune to serve this country abroad in situations that allowed me to see how highly regarded we are, despite all our failings. I've also seen how much people hope we will be even better, because it gives them hope that they can change things too. Nowhere it that being tested more right now than in Hong Kong, which is probably doomed, but which by it's tragedy may save liberty in Taiwan.

I'm not a utopian. I never will be. But I am an optimist when it comes to America. We can be so much better than what we seem to be becoming, but it has to start somewhere. What better place than the ballot box? As Ben Franklin said after the Constitutional Convention, "we have a Republic, if we can keep it."


Aislin 39F  
8605 posts
5/22/2020 10:56 am

The Government just seems like one of the TV reality shows lately such as 90 Day Fiancé' so it's so hard to believe it is at all serious and yet it is.

I am aroused by my own darkness and there is no cure.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/21/2020 6:56 pm

    Quoting Aislin:
    I don't know who to vote for and it would be my first time this year.
First, let me offer my congratulations to you as a first-time voter. You live in a very important State in the 2020 presidential election. Wisconsin went heavily for Obama 62.82% to 45.89% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and narrowly for Trump in 2016 47.22% to 46.45% for Hillary Clinton. In 2016, Wisconsin followed the same path that my State, Virginia, followed several elections ago. Wisconsin voters narrowly defeated a two-term Republican governor 49.6% to 48.5% and swept all of the statewide offices. The Republicans retained control of the legislature. The latest polls show Biden well ahead of Trump in Wisconsin.

The latest Wisconsin polls show Biden widening his lead over Trump:
May 6-8...........May 10-14
Biden.. 51%.....Biden... 48%
Trump 42%......Trump.. 38%

This doesn't mean much. Polls can and do change, but they do tell you how your fellow citizens feel about the two candidates and that the trend is heavily against Trump. This is very unusual for an incumbent president, who has all of the advantages of being in power. It takes a very strong backlash to produce these kinds of numbers.

It isn't my intention to tell you who to vote for. That should be a decision you make depending on your values and what kind of person you think best reflects them and will pursue the kind of policies you think are best for your country. I envy you. Voting in your first presidential election is a landmark event. I only hope whoever you vote for proves worthy of your vote.

I wish I could enter into a dialog with you about politics and public policy... though I can imagine dialogs I would rather have with you. Unfortunately I decline to waste any more money on this site, so we are left with only the blogs for communication.

Good luck with your very first vote.


Aislin 39F  
8605 posts
5/20/2020 10:18 pm

I don't know who to vote for and it would be my first time this year.

I am aroused by my own darkness and there is no cure.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/17/2020 10:30 pm

    Quoting shellfac1:
    I am afraid there won't be a fair fight. I feel as if only the swing states matter any more. I feel as if there are those who will stop at nothing to keep Trump in office. Many of his staff are already in prison, but he has many supporters (41%!) and can always find replacements. If they suppress mail-in voting and stop funding the post office, many could stay home and not vote. If polls in key diatricts are closed, many will become disinfranchised. If it were a fair fight, with honorable opponents who are willing to admit when they've lost, then yes, I'd say Biden can win. But frankly, I am afraid of the formidable advantage given to the one candidate who is unconstrained by a conscience, respect for the process or other people, or code of ethics.
Politics has always been a blood sport and an incumbent president has a great advantage. In States where Republicans control the governor's office voter suppression is likely. Additionally, polls taken before summer are usually not indicative of how an election will turn out. As usual, the swing States will be where the battle is won or lost, but it appears that a few more States will now be in that status. At present, the crucial element appears to be how much pent-up rage exists among voters who voted for Trump in 2016 who feel they were deceived. In 2018 there was a lot of rage, especially among suburban women. That seems to be carrying over to 2020. I don't expect the situation to clarify until the fall, when the full effects Trump's shambolic performance as the virus was secretly spreading will be known and we may be bracing for a second wave. The wild card will be Trump himself. So far he's been Biden's best weapon.


shellfac1 62F
2293 posts
5/17/2020 12:45 am

I am afraid there won't be a fair fight. I feel as if only the swing states matter any more. I feel as if there are those who will stop at nothing to keep Trump in office. Many of his staff are already in prison, but he has many supporters (41%!) and can always find replacements. If they suppress mail-in voting and stop funding the post office, many could stay home and not vote. If polls in key diatricts are closed, many will become disinfranchised. If it were a fair fight, with honorable opponents who are willing to admit when they've lost, then yes, I'd say Biden can win. But frankly, I am afraid of the formidable advantage given to the one candidate who is unconstrained by a conscience, respect for the process or other people, or code of ethics.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 5:21 am

    Quoting  :

Thanks Ina. I'm glad to be on your side in this contest as well. Hope you are well.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 5:18 am

    Quoting Aislin:
    lol.. I will make sure to watch this myself.
As I noted elsewhere, all Joe has to do when the debate starts is put a jug of clorox on his podium so every time the camera pans to him the audience will be reminded what kind of idiot is in the White House.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 5:14 am

Thanks for dropping by M. Hope you're doing well.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 5:09 am

    Quoting  :

Elections are won on emotion and charisma as much as on policy and organization. The choices are never perfect, but this one offers a clear choice between competence and incompetence. I agree that the cupboard is going to be bare after reckless tax cuts (that raised most Voters taxes while lining the pockets of the wealthy) and the expense of fighting the virus shutdown. That's why we need to rid ourselves of con men and shysters and install leaders who have a reputation for caring about and acting on behalf of the common man. On balance, that would be Joe Biden.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 4:53 am

All Joe has to do to win the debates is put a jug of clorox on the podium and stand there and grin while Trump blows a gasket. lol


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 4:49 am

    Quoting  :

Glad you agree. Thanks for commenting.


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/11/2020 4:44 am

    Quoting theowner2020:
    Joe did a nice Max Headroom impersonation the other day.
Trump can't even impersonate a president... and he's had three years to practice.


theowner2020 64M  
1207 posts
5/10/2020 5:35 am

You can't wait for the debates? Do you truly think you can follow a conversation between fact and fiction and know the difference?

Exactly. You really can't tell the difference.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You seem pretty ignorant yourself


slaveforyou365 63M  
4488 posts
5/9/2020 5:58 pm



Slave rick


Aislin 39F  
8605 posts
5/9/2020 5:40 pm

    Quoting theowner2020:
    Yes, that's what I said...I CAN'T WAIT!
    One guy can form a sentence and the other one can't, fuck he can't even read a sentence.
lol.. I will make sure to watch this myself.

I am aroused by my own darkness and there is no cure.


theowner2020 64M  
1207 posts
5/9/2020 5:31 pm

    Quoting  :

Yes, that's what I said...I CAN'T WAIT!
One guy can form a sentence and the other one can't, fuck he can't even read a sentence.


theowner2020 64M  
1207 posts
5/9/2020 3:58 pm

I can't wait for the debates


aliljaded 53F
8847 posts
5/9/2020 2:46 pm



"Men need to hunt. She obviously understands this. She’s offering herself as prey. Not easy prey. But willing.”


Dreamcatcher__ 87M
7020 posts
5/9/2020 2:38 pm

If you want a government that will put saving the planet ahead of saving Trump's ass, that won't go batshit crazy creating chaos just because Loony-Tunes Trump doesn't know to do anything else, If you want a Senate that won't vote for judges who won't protect a woman's right to choose, if you care about protecting the Constitutional right to bear arms without flooding the country with weapons that can kill dozens of people at a time, don't let this crisis go to waste.

If you want sanity in government, you have a real chance to get it. And so far, America is with you.

Let's keep it that way.



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